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Low-mass galaxy pair fractions are understudied, and it is unclear whether low-mass pair fractions evolve in the same way as more massive systems over cosmic time. In the era of JWST, Roman, and Rubin, selecting galaxy pairs in a self-consistent way will be critical to connect observed pair fractions to cosmological merger rates across all mass scales and redshifts. Utilizing the Illustris TNG100 simulation, we create a sample of physically associated low-mass (10⁸<M_*< 5 × 10⁹M_⊙) and high-mass (5 × 10⁹<M_*< 10¹¹M_⊙) pairs betweenz= 0 and 4.2. The low-mass pair fraction increases fromz= 0 to 2.5, while the high-mass pair fraction peaks atz= 0 and is constant or slightly decreasing atz> 1. Atz= 0 the low-mass major (1:4 mass ratio) pair fraction is 4× lower than high-mass pairs, consistent with findings for cosmological merger rates. We show that separation limits that vary with the mass and redshift of the system, such as scaling by the virial radius of the host halo (r_sep< 1R_vir), are critical for recovering pair fraction differences between low-mass and high-mass systems. Alternatively, static physical separation limits applied equivalently to all galaxy pairs do not recover the differences between low- and high-mass pair fractions, even up to separations of 300 kpc. Finally, we place isolated mass analogs of Local Group galaxy pairs, i.e., Milky Way (MW)–M31, MW–LMC, LMC–SMC, in a cosmological context, showing that isolated analogs of LMC–SMC-mass pairs and low-separation (<50 kpc) MW–LMC-mass pairs are 2–3× more common atz≳ 2–3.

Using the TNG50 cosmological simulation and observations from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), we investigate the connection between galaxy mergers and optical morphology in the local Universe over a wide range of galaxy stellar masses (8.5 ≤ log (M*/M⊙) ≤ 11). To this end, we have generated over 16 000 synthetic images of TNG50 galaxies designed to match KiDS observations, including the effects of dust attenuation and scattering, and used the statmorph code to measure various image-based morphological diagnostics in the r-band for both data sets. Such measurements include the Gini–M20 and concentration–asymmetry–smoothness statistics. Overall, we find good agreement between the optical morphologies of TNG50 and KiDS galaxies, although the former are slightly more concentrated and asymmetric than their observational counterparts. Afterwards, we trained a random forest classifier to identify merging galaxies in the simulation (including major and minor mergers) using the morphological diagnostics as the model features, along with merger statistics from the merger trees as the ground truth. We find that the asymmetry statistic exhibits the highest feature importance of all the morphological parameters considered. Thus, the performance of our algorithm is comparable to that of the more traditional method of selecting highly asymmetric galaxies. Finally, using our trained model, we estimate the galaxy merger fraction in both our synthetic and observational galaxy samples, finding in both cases that the galaxy merger fraction increases steadily as a function of stellar mass.

The total mass of the Local Group (LG) is a fundamental quantity that enables interpreting the orbits of its constituent galaxies and placing the LG in a cosmological context. One of the few methods that allows inferring the total mass directly is the “Timing Argument,” which models the relative orbit of the Milky Way (MW) and M31 in equilibrium. The MW itself is not in equilibrium, a byproduct of its merger history and including the recent pericentric passage of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), and recent work has found that the MW disk is moving with a lower bound “travel velocity” of ∼32 km s⁻¹with respect to the outer stellar halo. Previous Timing Argument measurements have attempted to account for this nonequilibrium state, but have been restricted to theoretical predictions for the impact of the LMC specifically. In this paper, we quantify the impact of a travel velocity on recovered LG mass estimates using several different compilations of recent kinematic measurements of M31. We find that incorporating the measured value of the travel velocity lowers the inferred LG mass by 10%–12% compared to a static MW halo. Measurements of the travel velocity with more distant tracers could yield even larger values, which would further decrease the inferred LG mass. Therefore, the newly measured travel velocity directly implies a lower LG mass than from a model with a static MW halo and must be considered in future dynamical studies of the Local Volume.